Latest Podcast : What the election changes and doesn't change with CERES & Climate Cabinet, Ep #99
Addressing climate change requires eliminating greenhouse gas emissions, but our understanding of our actual emissions has been reliant on imprecise estimates, lacking detailed information for effective policy decisions. An innovative initiative, Climate TRACE, involving over 100 organizations, employs satellite and remote sensor technology to accurately detect and monitor global emissions. Co-Founded by Vice President Al Gore and Gavin McCormick of WattTime, the initiative aims to enhance transparency, planning, and global efforts against climate change.
Gavin McCormick
We all know that addressing climate change means eliminating greenhouse gas emissions, but have you ever stopped to wonder how we know how much we’re actually emitting? The truth is we haven’t really known, but instead rely on estimates. These estimates fail to provide very specific data about where exactly emissions are coming from, when, and what investment and policy choices might be most effective in turning them off.
Today’s episode focused on an incredibly ambitious initiative called Climate TRACE, a collaboration of over 100 organizations that use a dizzying number of satellites and remote sensors to actually detect and track emissions at a global level. Vice President Al Gore is a Co-Founder of the initiative, along with Gavin McCormick who runs a nonprofit called WattTime. We’re joined today by Gavin who explains how Climate TRACE works, the Vice President’s role in the effort, their theories of change, surprises, progress, and hopes for the initiative, and much more. Climate TRACE is positioned to play a central role in improving transparency and planning at a global level, and I was thrilled to get to learn more about it through this interview. Enjoy.
Gavin, an economist by training, shares his unconventional journey in the tech field. Having pursued a PhD in Behavioral and Environmental Economics at UC Berkeley, he stumbled upon a pollution reduction method during a hackathon. This led him to establish WattTime, a nonprofit dedicated to this cause. Additionally, Gavin serves as a co-founder within the Climate TRACE coalition, a collaborative effort involving numerous partners.
WattTime’s name originates from the question: “What time would I have to use electricity to run it on renewables?” With the rapid expansion of renewable energy, such as California where a third of light switches trigger zero pollution, surplus clean energy is often wasted. WattTime’s approach involves identifying surplus renewable energy periods and automating devices like Nest thermostats, Toyota EVs, and batteries to align their energy consumption with clean energy availability, termed as automated emissions reduction. Unlike a traditional advocacy nonprofit, WattTime focuses on delivering technical solutions backed by data to effectively lower emissions.
WattTime, along with fellow organizations like TransitionZero in the UK, recognized a shared concern and a collection of advanced emission reduction solutions based on public data about power plants. While this was effective for countries with global power plant monitoring, it left out the majority of the world. To bridge this gap, they united to create a collaborative effort, initially centered around power plant monitoring using satellite and AI technology. This collaboration evolved into the expansive Climate TRACE coalition, encompassing around 100 organizations. The coalition aims to compile a comprehensive emissions dataset from all sources globally, resembling a Wikipedia-like resource where anyone can access emissions data for any source on the planet.
Gavin states that Climate TRACE operates on the principle that there isn’t a singular solution to this complex issue, making the effort of producing this data set worthwhile. The initiative currently focuses on 32 distinct “theories of change,” which are specific strategies that various groups could employ to reduce emissions if armed with accurate data. For instance, WattTime’s theory involves coordinating energy usage during cleaner times for devices globally. Other theories encompass transition zero’s cost-effective emissions reduction advice and Al Gore’s focus on transparent emission reporting through the Paris Agreement. By incorporating diverse theories of change – spanning technical, corporate, and government solutions – all reliant on the same data set, Climate TRACE aims to provide a consolidated resource for addressing emissions across multiple fronts.
Gavin explains the concept of “emissionality,” a concept supported by WattTime, which encourages considering not just renewable sources as emission-free, but assessing how their implementation would alter emissions. This approach is essential because strategically placing new renewable energy projects where they replace more polluting power sources can significantly amplify emissions reductions for the same investment. Climate TRACE empowers sustainability managers, who frequently engage in renewable energy procurement, by identifying locations where new renewable projects would yield heightened emissions impact per unit of capital. This application resembles a rapidly expanding facet that parallels supply chain considerations.
Gavin sheds light on the involvement of Former Vice President Al Gore as a co-founder of Climate TRACE, noting an intriguing aspect of his abilities. While Al Gore is renowned for various accomplishments, his proficiency in AI is often overlooked. Gavin recalls their first meeting when Al Gore provided valuable insights on enhancing AI algorithms for data collection, highlighting his technical prowess. Since that initial encounter, Al Gore’s technical expertise has proven instrumental in convening and unifying a diverse group of technical experts within the climate sector. Despite lacking a formal role, Al Gore’s substantial respect among climate organizations has effectively positioned him as a unifying force, fostering cohesion within the initiative.
In the initial year, the project aimed to estimate emissions for every country globally, followed by a goal in the subsequent year to measure emissions from 72,000 significant sources like power plants, steel factories, ships, and planes. This year, the initiative seeks to achieve an even more comprehensive scope by measuring emissions from around 72 million major sources across the planet, highlighting the pursuit of detailed global coverage.
While the impact of such a project takes time to manifest, the initiative has begun to gain traction with notable users. Car manufacturers are adopting cleaner supply chains based on the data, state governments are revisiting their emission-reducing investment portfolios, and financial institutions are incorporating the data into their strategies. The upcoming COP 28 event in December holds promise for revealing further users who have joined the initiative, signaling growing interest and engagement. Gavin, reflecting on his years of environmental activism, notes the surprising enthusiasm for emissions reduction among individuals and organizations when equipped with the necessary data and tools, leading to impressive engagement and optimization efforts across various sectors.
The primary aim for this year is achieving global coverage, followed by plans for the subsequent year to enhance time granularity, moving towards weekly updates and eventually near real-time data. This technical progression serves a crucial purpose – enabling cross-validation of emissions data from various sources. For instance, comparing self-reported corporate emissions, city emissions, and investment-related emissions often leads to discrepancies that can’t be reconciled due to a lack of comprehensive data. By establishing a framework where emissions data can be compared and verified, Climate TRACE aims to ensure the accuracy and transparency of emissions reporting, ultimately fostering a more honest system.
Gavin’s emphasis for the following year is on optimizing emissions reduction strategies based on trustworthy data. He envisions advancements in next-generation climate tech that can use accurate, detailed, and granular data to automatically optimize emissions reduction across different times, locations, and supply chains. This dual approach of making emissions data interoperable and then using it for optimization represents a two-step process for Climate TRACE’s trajectory, with this year focused on foundational data integrity and the next year shifting focus to innovative optimization efforts that demonstrate the feasibility of effective emissions reduction.
Many volunteers participate by reviewing diverse datasets to identify reliable sources that can be incorporated into the database. Climate TRACE relies on philanthropic support and accepts donations, including a unique form of data donation that few organizations consider. If individuals are part of companies or government agencies with emissions, economic, or operational data related to transportation, power plants, ships, etc., the initiative welcomes data contributions. Donating data is cost-free and allows contributors to retain ownership while strengthening the AI capabilities. Gavin encourages anyone motivated by the mission to engage in these activities and join the efforts.
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